SHANE OLIVER: Five Economic Indicators To Watch In 2014

WeathervanePhoto: Getty / Ian Waldie

AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver has a note out this afternoon that comprises a series lists such as “Five reasons to be be too bearish on Australia” and “Four signs Abenomics is working in Japan”.

With lists being a bit of a thing for Business Insider, we like the execution.

One of the lists is a set of five economic indicators to track over the coming year. From the note:

  • Global business conditions indicators (or PMIs) – these have been drifting higher auguring well for improved global growth but not (thankfully) a global boom.
  • Wages growth in the US as a guide to how quickly inflation will pick up there and so when & how quickly US monetary tightening will occur – so far it’s still very low.
  • The spread to German bond yields of Italian and Spanish bonds – a good guide to whether the Eurozone crisis is continuing to fade. So far the news remains very good, with the spread continuing to contract.
  • Chinese lending and money supply growth – it should trend sideways.
  • Australian consumer spending related indicators, like consumer confidence & retail sales, as these are a good guide to whether the benefit of interest rate cuts are flowing on from housing to the broader economy.


(The PMI results for manufacturing from around the world are released on the first working day of the month and they’re covered comprehensively in real time by Business Insider, so you can follow them with us.)

Oliver sees 2014 as being another good year for investors, but perhaps not as thumping as 2013. He also forecasts Australian growth to pick up with stronger housing investment and consumer spending.

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