10 US Housing Markets At Risk Of A Major Collapse


Even the baseline scenario in places like Las Vegas and Miami is grim, where Case Shiller projects a 21% decline in home prices from 2010 to 2012.

But in one scenario it could be worse.

6.7 million delinquent mortgages are waiting to flood the market around the country — and with near-zero cure rates most of them will. Another 2 million homes in foreclosure are being held off the market by banks.

Economist Keith Jurow says distressed asset investors are ignoring this threat: “If you are an investor thinking of buying one or more properties in Miami-Dade County, for example, you need to know that 24.9% of all active first liens there were seriously distressed. This means that more than 91,000 properties are almost certainly going to be dumped onto the market. Will that exert downward pressure on prices? Absolutely.”

Distressed mortgages represented over 10 per cent of all mortgages in 10 large markets, as of Q3 2010.

#10 Maricopa, Ariz. (Phoenix)

Active loans: 715,944

90+ days delinquent loans: 43,164

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 31,807

Distressed total: 10.5%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#9 Kern, Calif. (Bakersfield)

Active loans: 114,227

90+ days delinquent loans: 8,031

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 4,929

Distressed total: 11.3%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#8 San Joaquin, Calif. (Stockton)

Active loans: 105,519

90+ days delinquent loans: 8,887

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 5,021

Distressed total: 13.2%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#7 San Bernadino, Calif

Active loans: 315,992

90+ days delinquent loans: 27,051

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 14,980

Distressed total: 13.3%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#6 Prince George's, M.D.

Active loans: 148,228

90+ days delinquent loans: 13,800

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 6,367

Distressed total: 13.6%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#5 Riverside, Calif.

Active loans: 368,432

90+ days delinquent loans: 32,622

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 17,965

Distressed total: 13.7%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#4 Clark, Nev. (Las Vegas)

Active loans: 360,192

90+ days delinquent loans: 32,932

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 32,388

Distressed total: 18.1%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#3 Orange, Fla. (Orlando)

Active loans: 204,944

90+ days delinquent loans: 13,020

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 24,839

Distressed total: 18.5%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#2 Broward, Fla. (Ft. Lauderdale)

Active loans: 328,721

90+ days delinquent loans: 21,939

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 44,251

Distressed total: 20.1%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#1 Miami-Dade, Fla.

Active loans: 366,775

90+ days delinquent loans: 26,735

Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 64,708

Distressed total: 24.9%

Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

Delinquent mortgages are one threat

Loans staying in foreclosure are another

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