The Shadow Indicators Show That ECRI's Recession Call Is Getting Even Weaker

Each Friday I post an update on the public release of data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Dwaine van Vuuren, CEO of, and his collaborators, including Georg Vrba and Franz Lischka, have developed a powerful recession forecasting methodology that shows promise of making forecasts with fewer false positives, which I take to include excessively long lead times, such as ECRI’s September 2011 recession call.

Here is Dwaine’s 1st estimate and alert level posted in advance of Friday’s ECRI weekly update.





Monday 17th September 2012, 1st estimate: The official ECRI figures for Friday 21st September are expected to be considerably higher than last week at 125.9 (124.9) with a growth metric of +3.0 (+2.08). This marks a new 24 week high. The lower estimate for ECRI’s posting on Friday this week is WLI= 125.6/WLIg= +2.7 and the upper estimate is WLI= 126.1/WLIg= +3.3. Recession probability within 4-6 weeks is at 2%. Here is the latest snapshot.

For a detailed discussion, visit Dwaine’s Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project on his website.

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