The entire month of October is a prelude to two things that happen in the beginning of November: the election and the FOMC. Each economic datapoint has the potential to effect both of those.
Bernanke may have already decided what kind of QE he plans to initiate come November, but voters are still making up their minds, and this Friday they’ll get a headline that will push them further towards the GOP.
The jobless rate probably rose in September for a second month as the year-old U.S. recovery failed to generate enough jobs to keep up with a growing labour force, economists said before a report this week.
Unemployment climbed to 9.7 per cent from 9.6 per cent in August, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of an Oct. 8 report from the labour Department. The data may also show companies added 77,000 workers to payrolls, and total hiring stagnated amid cuts in government staffing as the decennial census wound down.
But even if the voters hate it, the market might love it because Bernanke’s decision to expand the Fed’s portfolio will be that much easier.