Overall, this was a solid report.Nonfarm payrolls came in right in line with estimates at 114K, but the unemployment rate tumbled to 7.8 per cent from 8.1 per cent last month.
What’s really good is that last month’s number was revised upward to 142K from 96K.
July was also revised up by 41K.
Private payrolls came in at 104K, lower than expectations of 130K. Last month’s private payrolls number was revised down to 97K from 103K.
Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate actually ticked up this month, despite the drop in headline unemployment.
The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 per cent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of labour Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing
but changed little in most other major industries.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 per cent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1
and 8.3 per cent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 per cent),
adult women (7.0 per cent), and whites (7.0 per cent) declined over the month.
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 per cent), blacks (13.4 per cent), and
Hispanics (9.9 per cent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at
4.8 per cent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2,
In September, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
decreased by 468,000 to 6.5 million. (See table A-11.)
The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1
per cent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)
Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little
change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to
58.7 per cent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in
the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labour
force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labour force
participation rate was little changed at 63.6 per cent. (See table A-1.)
More to come…
ORIGINAL: It could be argued that this is the most important jobs report in history.
It will shade the final month of an increasingly exciting US Presidential election.
It will help determine whether the US economy is taking another leg down, or holding on.
Here are the official expectations from analysts, via Bloomberg:
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +115K
- Change in Private Payrolls: +130K
- The Unemployment Rate: 8.2%
Markets are marginally higher going into the report.
We’ll have the number right here LIVE at 8:30 AM ET.