The jobs report is on Friday.
On Friday morning, the BLS will release its September report on nonfarm payrolls.
Last month, the jobs report disappointed, with nonfarm payrolls gains in August coming in at 142,000, well below expectations for 230,000.
August’s report also marked the first time in six months that payroll gains came in below 200,000. A revision of August’s number on Friday, however, could repair that streak.
Here is what Wall Street is looking for on Friday:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +215,000
- Unemployment rate: 6.1%
- Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.2%
- Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +2.2%
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.5
The labour force participation rate is also closely watched by investors, and last month came in at 62.8%, down from 62.9% in August.
Friday’s jobs report also comes at the end of what has been a rough week for stocks, with Thursday marking a particularly ugly day for European markets after the latest monetary policy announcement from the ECB.
The Federal Reserve, which of course closely monitors the labour market, is set to wind down its quantitative easing program at its next policy meeting, scheduled for Oct. 28-29. Inflation and the strength of the labour market are keys the Fed will watch after concluded QE as it considers when to begin raising interest rates.
What Wall Street Expects
In a note to clients, Jay Feldman at Credit Suisse said he expects the report to show payrolls grew by 215,000 in September.
“While payrolls stumbled in August, the big picture labour market story has not changed materially. Job growth remains in healthy territory on a trend basis, and labour market slack continues to erode steadily,” Feldman wrote. This estimate includes the return of 25,000 employees who went on strike at Market Basket in New England during August.
Paul Dales at Capital Economics, who expects the report to show nonfarm payrolls grew 225,000 in September, notes that 6,500 casino workers who lost their jobs in Atlantic City last month could offset some of the Market Basket gains.
At High Frequency Economics, Jim O’Sullivan expects nonfarm payrolls to grow by 195,000 with the unemployment remaining at 6.1%. O’Sullivan also notes that, “Payrolls have tended to be underreported initially in recent years, but the pattern has been especially pronounced in August and September.”
Joe LaVorgna at Deutsche Bank sees payrolls growing by 200,000 in September with the unemployment rate falling to 6%.
Brian Jones at Societe Generale sees payrolls growing by 260,000, the highest expectation among Wall Street economists followed by Business Insider.
Other notably bullish predictions include Dean Maki at Barclays and Maury Harris at UBS, who both see payrolls growing by 250,000.
Peter D’Antonio at Citi has the lowest prediction among economists followed by Business Insider, expecting payrolls to grow by just 175,000 in September.
This chart shows the monthly growth in nonfarm payrolls this year.
Business Insider will have wall-to-wall live coverage of the jobs report Friday morning.