Inflation Inches Up

Inflation remains tepid.

Inflation in September rose 0.1% month-over-month both for headline and “core” CPI.

On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation rose 1.7% and “core” inflation rose 1.7%.

Expectations were for the report to show inflation was flat month-over-month in September and rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis.

“Core” inflation, which excludes the cost of food and energy, was expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.

The latest inflation report from the BLS showed that the food index rose 0.3% and five of six major grocery store group indexes increase, while the energy index fell 0.7% as gas, electricity, and fuel oil all declined.

Last month, the CPI report showed headline inflation fell 0.2% month-over-month, but rose 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.

“Core” inflation in August was flat and rose 1.7% year-over-year.

In a note to clients following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, “In one line: Core trend is steady; headline set for further gas-induced decline in Q4… With core inflation steady, faster wage gains will be the key Fed trigger.”

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