Today's GDP Report Is Crucial, But There's One Reason Why You Should Ignore It

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Of today’s economic data releases, the revised Q4 GDP report will be the most closely watched.Last month, everyone was stunned when when the Bureau of Economic Analysis told us that GDP grew by -0.1 per cent in Q4.  Economists were looking for a reading of 1.1 per cent.

Thanks to some additional data, economists are now expecting that number to be revised to +0.5 per cent when the BEA releases its new GDP report later this morning.

But even that number is likely to be thrown out when we get revisions in March.

Furthermore, there’s a mammoth revision coming in July that could make today’s report completely moot.

Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna:

The second snapshot of Q4 real GDP is expected to show a modest upward revision because of stronger than previously reported readings on construction spending and net exports. This should offset what is likely to be a downward revision to inventory positions. The fact that the latter are so low bodes well for future production. Indeed, that is what the January durable goods data suggest. Remember Q4 real GDP will be revised again next month and more importantly, it will be subject to further and possibly more significant revision in late July when the Commerce Department conducts its roughly semi-decade comprehensive benchmark revisions.

We’ll cover today’s BEA release live when it comes out at 8:30 AM ET.

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