With just three weeks left in the regular season, the New England Patriots remain the favourite to win this year’s Super Bowl. But the new favourites in the NFC are the surging Seattle Seahawks, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots have a 26% chance to win the Super Bowl, up from 22% last week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, who were at 6% just two weeks ago, have won three straight games and now have an 18% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy for the second straight year.
In all, just six teams still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl, the model predicts, including only two in the AFC:
- New England Patriots, 26%
- Seattle Seahawks, 18%
- Denver Broncos, 14%
- Green Bay Packers, 13%
- Arizona Cardinals, 7%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 5%
The biggest loser this past week was Cincinnati, as the Bengals had a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl last week but fell to just 1% after their blowout loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
At the other end, 10 teams have either been eliminated from playoff contention or have less than a 1% chance of making the postseason. These teams are the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Bears, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Rams.
That leaves 22 teams still battling for the 12 playoff spots.
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