After just two weeks, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are still the favourites to win this year’s Super Bowl according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior years’ performance and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
Here are the nine teams that still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl (prior to week 3 games):
- Seattle Seahawks, 12%
- Denver Broncos, 12%
- Carolina Panthers, 9%
- San Francisco 49ers, 8%
- New England Patriots, 8%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 8%
- Arizona Cardinals, 6%
- San Diego Chargers, 5%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 5%
The Dallas Cowboys (3%) are the only other team to win the Super Bowl in more than 2% of the simulations. At the other end, 11 teams are given less than a 1% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy this season.
Two of those teams are already effectively out of playoff contention with both the Jacksonville Jaguars (4%) and the Oakland Raiders (<1%) being given less than a 1-in-20 shot to just make the playoffs. In fact, the Raiders have a better chance to go winless, going 0-16 more often (6%) during the simulations.
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