Mobile advertising is going to be the fastest growing sector in advertising this year, measured as percentage of growth, according to IDC analyst Karsten Weide.
But search is still the REAL growth area in advertising: “Between 2009 and 2014, search ad sales will gain almost nine times as many additional dollars spent than mobile advertising,” Weide predicts in this IDC blog post.
Spending on online advertising in the Unites States will almost completely recover from the “great recession” this year, forecasted to grow by 19%, from $26.4 billion in 2009 to $31.5 billion in 2010. We will see the strongest growth in online video ads (40%) and mobile online ad (97%). Worldwide spending on online advertising will increase by 18% to $72 billion in 2010. These are the top-line results from IDC’s new Worldwide and U.S. Internet Advertising Forecast and Analysis 2010 – 2014 (IDC #223346, May 2010, subscription required).
Mobile advertising is certainly the hottest online ad segment: Last year, year two anno iPhone, U.S. sales grew by 47% in 2009 from $150 million to $220 million. This year, we expect a growth of almost 97%. Not only does that mean that mobile outperformed online advertising at large by leaps and bounds (which declined by 2.4%) and will continue to do so, it also means that there is now real money in this segment. Google’s intended acquisition of AdMob and Apple’s purchase of Quattro Wireless prove that major players are getting ready to take advantage of this new online ad segment.
But despite that fast mobile growth, our reports’ numbers also show that, over the five-year forecasting period, search advertising gains the most dollars. Between 2009 and 2014, search ad sales will gain almost nine times as many additional dollars spent than mobile advertising. While search gains more than $13.5 (growing from $13.8 to $27.3 billion), mobile will only add $1.6 billion (expanding from $220 million to $1.8 billion).
Is mobile advertising a strategically important segment? Yes. Will you be sorry 10 years from now if you don’t jump in today? You certainly will be, because if you don’t stake a claim now both in terms of traffic and advertising market share as well as with regard to technology, you won’t stand a chance to catch up later. Will it be a decisive factor in the race of the online publishers over the next five years? Hardly.