Two New Polls Show The Scottish Independence Vote Is Going To Be An Absolute Nail-Biter

Two new polls on Scottish independence were just released, both giving a tiny lead to the No campaign.

The No campaign may have had about an hour of relief at the first poll, by Panelbase. The firm’s poll was actually tighter, with No at 49% and Yes at 48%, so there’s some last minute good news for the anti-independence campaign.

But the latest Ipsos-Mori poll is much tighter than their previous work. The No campaign leads by just two points, with 51% against 49% for Yes. In their last one, No was at 58%.

It’s still incredibly close, all within the margin of error for a victory by either side, but these are the third and fourth polls in 24 hours to give a lead to No.

PanelbasePanelbasePanelbase’s projection has widened slightly since their last poll

There’s some more good news from Panelbase for unions. They asked the 5% of Scots who say they will vote but don’t know for who which way they’re leaning. That’s enormously important and something other pollsters haven’t done. When asked, the 5% of undecided voters are more pro-union. 52% say they would vote No if they were standing in the polling booth right now, and only 33% say they would vote Yes.

It’s going to be an absolute nailbiter.

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