YouGov released the latest poll on the Scottish independence referendum Thursday, and the “no” campaign has surged back. There has been a 6-point swing from YouGov’s last poll over the weekend, with 52% of respondents saying they will vote “no” for independence and 48% saying they will vote “yes.”
The poll provides a key barometer of Scots’ feelings toward independence one week ahead of the Sept. 18 referendum.
YouGov’s last poll showed a “yes” vote taking the lead in Scotland, causing the British pound to collapse late last weekend and early this week. The poll released last weekend found 51% of respondents choosing to vote “yes” for independence, while 49% said they would vote “no.”
This is the first gain for the “no” campaign has gained ground in the poll since early August. After the poll’s release, the pound surged. Still, YouGov president Peter Kellner wrote that the “yes” vote has held onto most of its gains over the past five weeks.
Just five weeks ago, voters in Scotland were decidedly split toward voting “no.” A massive tightening followed, and the “yes” campaign briefly enjoyed a lead.
Here’s a chart from YouGov showing the swings, including the latest toward the “no” vote:
A vote for independence could cause massive ramifications throughout Europe, and it would lead to a host of immediate questions for Scotland: Would it be able to still use the British pound, which fell to its lowest level in 10 months on news of the polls? Would it be able to stay a member of NATO? And would it be able to gain re-entry into the European Union?
A “yes” vote would also likely embolden other secessionist movements throughout Europe — what geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, called the “contagion” effect.
Despite tightening polls over the last month, most analysts still expect Scots to vote “no” on the referendum.
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