The San Francisco Giants overcame what seemed like an insurmountable task when they came from behind to beat the Chicago Cubs in 13 innings, win Game 3, and stay alive in the National League Division Series.
The chart below, based on data generated by Fangraphs.com
, shows the Giants’ chances of winning the game after every at bat and it gives a look at what the Giants had to do to come back and win.
The first big moment came in the third inning. With the Giants already trailing 3-0, the Cubs got two runners on base with just one out and looked primed to extend their lead. The Giants chances of winning the game at the point fell to just 13.2% before escaping that jam.
The real fun started in the eight inning with Giants chances jumping from 23.9% to 94.2%, thanks in large part to Conor Gillaspie’s 2-run triple. But then the chances fell again in the ninth inning with Kris Bryant’s 2-run home run, before finally reaching 100% on Joe Panik’s walk-off double in the 13th inning.
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