The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time high this week. And the S&P 500 is within points of its October 2007 high.
S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall believes the odds suggest we’re going to go back down again, at least for a bit.
He compares the situation to the story of Pheidippides, the Marathon messenger, who made it all the way to only to his destination instantly perish:
If history is any guide, for it’s never gospel, it may respond like the messenger from Marathon. In other words, the S&P 500 may have little time to rejoice following the setting of a new record high before collapsing again, as the median advance following the recovery to break-even from bear markets since WWII has been only 3% before stumbling and falling into another meaningful decline within only two months.
Here’s his table, which we’ve annotated, showing what he’s talking about:
Photo: S&P Capital IQ
The good news, Stovall notes, is that none of the recoveries was followed by the start of a new bear market.
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