A Quick Observation On The Latest Round Of Economic Data


[credit provider=”Wikimedia Commons” url=”http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mount_Pleasant_Radio_Telescope.jpg”]

Today’s industrial production and capacity utilization report underlines a key theme in the economy right now: There’s a lot of panic out there, but the data isn’t that bad.Not only is this fresh (July) data, but it included past upward revisions, which is actually one of the most bullish signs, because that’s a sign that the data is improving faster than the models (which all surveys use to crystallize incomplete data) is anticipating.

And that’s not the first time we’ve seen past revisions: Remember the shockingly good July jobs report? That saw solid upward revisions to both of the previous months of jobs numbers.

Meanwhile, the most high-frequency data out there — initial claims — has been surprisingly solid, with recent weeks clocking in sub-400K.

That’s not to say it’s all reassuring. Empire Fed was a disaster yesterday. And consumer sentiment is atrocious. And both equities and Treasuries seem to be pricing in very bad news.

But there isn’t a nail in the coffin just yet that would say this recovery is toast.