Tired of all this bullishness, and talk about how there’s nothing to worry about anymore?Don’t worry. That’s why God gave us Nouriel Roubini.
He has a new article at Project Syndicate that could pretty much be titled: Things still suck.
It’s actually titled The Economic Fundamentals of 2013 and, spoiler alert, he says the fundamentals aren’t good.
Roubini identifies four big risks to the global economy.
- The US still hasn’t really gotten through its fiscal cliff/debt ceiling stuff.
- The Eurozone’s problems won’t be resolved, and things will re-ignite in the second half of the year.
- China has been forced to restimulate its economy. That will fade by the second half of this year.
- The BRICs are seeing growth decelerate.
- Geopolitical risks (Pakistan, Middle East, etc.)
While the chance of a perfect storm – with all of these risks materialising in their most virulent form – is low, any one of them alone would be enough to stall the global economy and tip it into recession. And while they may not all emerge in the most extreme way, each is or will be appearing in some form. As 2013 begins, the downside risks to the global economy are gathering force.
(Via Bonnie Kavoussi)