Nouriel Roubini is calling it this morning, following a bout of dismal economic data around the world. Europe and the U.S. are “effectively in recession” and there’s nothing policy makers can do to save them.
- Economy already in recession. Whatever the Fed does now is too little too late
- UK in double dip @MarkitEconomics: CBI Trends total orders at -9 in. UK Man PMI highlights real weakness in order books twitpic.com/6onoto
- EZ in recession @MarkitEconomics: Flash Eurozone Composite PMI comes in below consensus for the 4th time in past 5 mths twitpic.com/6oneor
- China slowing @MarkitEconomics: release saw HSBC Flash China Man PMI remain <50 at 49.4 (Aug:49.9). Output index also <50 at 49.2 (Aug:50.2)
- US, Eurozone and UK are effectively in a recession now. And policy makers are running out of policy rabbits to pull out their policy hats
- RGE (www.roubini.com) predicted in July a 60% probability of recession in most advanced economies. By now that probability is much higher.
- Only issue now: will it be a mild G7 recession or a severe recession plus global financial crisis as bad or even worse than the 2008-09 one?
- My 8-point plan on “How to Prevent a Depression” & a financial crisis since a recession is at this point unavoidable bit.ly/qqsUv8
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