Nouriel Roubini’s down under at a conference in Perth, and he’s not backing down from his recent recession call.
“In my view, there’s a significant probability – more than 50 per cent – that over the next 12 months, there’s going to be another recession in most advanced economies,” the New York University professor said.
“If we look at the situation in the United States, in the Eurozone and in the United Kingdom, the chances of another recession are significant.”
“Whether you call it a double dip recession, or a cultivation of the first recession or a second recession it doe snt matter, its semantic.”
“If we’re asking ourselves whether the recession in advanced economies is going to be mild or whether it will be severe, the answer very much depends on what happens in the Eurozone,” he explained.
“If the Eurozone is able to control its own crisis, the recession will be relatively mild.
“But if the situation in the Eurozone becomes disorderly, with defaults by a number of countries, and [there is] a disorderly exit of a number of members of the Eurozone, and eventually a break up, that shock could be as large, if not larger, than the disorderly collapse of Lehmann [Brothers] in the fall of 2008.”
In case that’s not doomish enough for you, Nouriel also says we may get a hard landing in China.
A month ago, of course, everyone agreed that we were headed for a double-dip recession. Now, almost everyone agrees that everything’s fine.
But a few holdouts like Roubini, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI, and John Hussman of the Hussman Funds are sticking with the recession call.
SEE ALSO: HUSSMAN: The Recession Is Still Coming…