You’re not going to believe this, but Nouriel Roubini is not particularly optimistic about things in 2009. In fact, he’s downright gloomy. This time he’s focusing on the confluence of politics and economics and our increasingly delicate relationship with the Chinese. What’s more, he notes the idea of coordinated global action is impossible:
Politics will make matters worse, primarily because governments in both the rich and the developing worlds are intervening in their economies more broadly and deeply than at any time since the end of World War II. Policy makers around the world are hard at work crafting stimulus packages filled with subsidies and protections they hope will breathe new life into their domestic economies, and preparing to rewrite the rules and regulations that govern global markets.
Why is this dangerous? At the G-20 summit a few weeks ago, world leaders pledged to address the crisis by coordinating their economic policy responses. That’s not going to happen, because politicians design stimulus packages with political motives — to satisfy the needs of their constituents — not to address imbalances in the global economy. This is as true in Washington as in Beijing.
It’s a good thing Roubini is here in the US. The infamous Korean doomsayer/blogger “Minerva” was just indicted, after having been arrested a few weeks ago.
No Rebound For Oil Says Roubini