Rosenberg: The Bond Rally Can Last Two More Years, And Yields Will Go To 2%

David Rosenberg renews his argument for being long bonds:

Take a look at Chart 1, in this post-bubble credit collapse everything is mean reverting from P/E ratios, to savings rates, to debt/income ratios, to homeownership rates and the process is going to take more time and extract more domestic demand growth and pricing power out of the economy. We closed the 1930s with a 2% long bond yield, which makes perfect sense to us since the typical spread between the 30-year and the overnight rate is around 200 basis points. It won’t be a straight line, and based on past long interest rate cycles, which can last up to 32 years, we could be looking at a bottom roughly two years from now. So we wouldn’t quibble with the view that the secular bull market in bonds is in the mature stage. But it ain’t over yet.


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