We mentioned the ugly NFIB small business survey data yesterday.
In his daily note, David Rosenberg warns:
The National Federation of Independent Business’s (NFIB) capital spending intentions index dipped to 16 in August from 18 in July and is now down three straight months after peaking out at the beginning of the year. This index leads industrial production growth by six months, and at a time when there has been a record divergence between the two data series. In the name of Bob Farrell’s Rule #2, as it pertains to mean reversion, either NFIB surges from here or … look out below with regard to the growth rate in industrial activity.