Every year, Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok invites economists, central bankers, and portfolio managers to spend five days fishing at Leen’s Lodge in eastern Maine.
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg attended the camp for the second time this year.
In a new note he writes that nobody there was optimistic on economic growth in the U.S. or abroad.
“I was actually perceived as the resident bull (difficult as that one may be to believe). But there were some prominent economists who I have always felt saw things as half-cup-full are quite pessimistic on growth — calling for either zero for 2014 or quite possible an ECRI-style outright relapse.
“There was concern over the lack of any major catalyst and plenty of worry that the sequestering is only starting to bite now, just as the lags are kicking in from the early-2013 tax hikes. And there was no worry at all over inflation with the widespread consensus view that there is far too much slack in the economy.”
He said there were very few people there that were bullish on stocks, and there were no strong opinions on Treasuries.
Last month we pointed out that Rosenberg was starting to sound extremely bullish. He responded to that piece, saying it is a mistake to label him a straight-up bull and that he has become “incrementally more positive on the outlook for the U.S. economy, there is still no shortage of financial risks that have to be addressed at this point.”
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