ROSENBERG: The Third Act Of The Economic Recovery Is Now In Full Swing!

David Rosenberg, the long-time top economist at Merrill Lynch and current top strategist at Gluskin Sheff, has earned a reputation as being a perma-bear for his gloomy commentary on the markets.

But since Friday’s jobs report, Rosenberg’s tone has turned decidedly bullish.

Indeed, he has already published his “10 Reasons To Love The U.S. Employment Report.”

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, Rosenberg goes even further:


First came the healing in the credit markets in 2009-2010.

Then came the healing in the housing market from 2011 to now.

And now we have the third act in full swing, which is the healing of the labour market.

It’s not merely the +195k in the headline payroll data for June and the upward revisions that really made it a +265k reading. It was the fact that the private sector added 202k net new jobs and that basically has been the norm now for the past five months. Considering the magnitude of this year’s intense fiscal squeeze, only the most ardent pessimist would regard this anything than downright impressive. In the leveraged 2002-2007 cycle, the average monthly gain in private payrolls was 136k. In the tech boom 1992-2000 cycle, the average was 210k. So I’ll leave it up to you to judge how the current pace of 200k should be treated in that context. The case for the Fed’s above-consensus forecasts to be met this time around, especially as the budget cuts fade in 2014, looks pretty strong to me…


That would fly as bullish for even the most bullish economists.

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