ROSENBERG: Get Ready For A Lot Of Spending This Holiday Season

Total retail sales
jumped 0.4% in October, quadrupling expectations for 0.1% advance.

And in a new note to clients, Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg says the figures bode well for the holiday season.

When people feel financially comfortable enough to spend in restaurants, it means they are ready to plunk down money for gifts. Here’s Rosenberg:

Restaurant activity of all the components tends to be the best leading indicator and the trend here is pointing north. Sales rose 1% in October, and since June the trend has accelerated to a near 6% annual rate; the YOY trend jumped in October to +4.4% from +1.3% as well. This could bode very well for spending growth into the holiday season. If people are willing to eat out, the most discretionary of discretionary activity, then they certainly are not going to chintz on their holiday shopping.

“But one thing is for sure — the windfall from the drop in gas prices is being put right back into the economy,” Rosenberg adds.

And that trend may continue through holiday shopping, according to TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg. “With gasoline prices likely to remain contained in the near-term, we may see stronger consumption trends persist over the next few months, helping to lessen the anticipated impact of the government shutdown on Q4 growth expectations,” he said.

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