Is this a sign of the top?
David Rosenberg, in his daily note, writes:
In yesterday’s Globe and Mail, Brian Milner provides commentary from a market pundit who claims that the U.S. economy has just reached a “turning point”.
• The U.S. election results.
• A soon-to-be-reached agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts and the 99 weeks of extended/emergency jobless benefits.
• The QE2 program.
• The latest nonfarm payroll and ISM data — obliterating double-dip risks. • The action banks have taken to write down debts.
It’s truly amazing how a 17% bounce in the equity market in barely over two months can colour one’s views of the macro backdrop.
My response: clearly the U.S. economy is not contracting. A few months ago I thought it would be. But it is still on very shaky ground.
So there you go.