Rosenberg: I Was Wrong, "Clearly The US Economy Is Not Contracting"

David Rosenberg

Is this a sign of the top?

David Rosenberg, in his daily note, writes:

In yesterday’s Globe and Mail, Brian Milner provides commentary from a market pundit who claims that the U.S. economy has just reached a “turning point”.

The evidence?

•    The U.S. election results.
•    A soon-to-be-reached agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts and the 99 weeks of extended/emergency jobless benefits.
•    The QE2 program.
•    The latest nonfarm payroll and ISM data — obliterating double-dip risks. •    The action banks have taken to write down debts.

It’s truly amazing how a 17% bounce in the equity market in barely over two months can colour one’s views of the macro backdrop.

My response: clearly the U.S. economy is not contracting. A few months ago I thought it would be. But it is still on very shaky ground.

So there you go.

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