It’s hard to complain about today’s jobs report.
Even the typically bearish economist David Rosenberg sounds particularly rosy.
In today’s Breakfast With Dave note, Rosenberg offers his “10 Reasons To Love The U.S. Employment Report” (paraphrased):
- The headline +195k nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations. This compares to average monthly gains of +150k during the credit-fuelled boom of 2003-2007.
- Two months of upward revisions totaled 70k.
- Average weekly hours rose 0.4%, the best since February. With low inflation, real purchasing power is strengthening considerably.
- Aggregate weekly hourse up 0.2% in May and June. Very impressive considering fiscal squeeze.
- Private payrolls jumped 207k in June, and has added a million in the past five months.
- Financial services added 17k jobs in June. This is stellar considering reregulation. Retail hiring jumped 37k, which means they see “something stirring on Main Street.”
- Construction payrolls rose 13k even as mortgage rates surged.
- On a population and payroll adjusted basis, household employment surged 350k in June. The average duration of employment fell to 35,6 weeks.
- The “quit” rate jumped to 8.8%, the highest level since December 2008. “This is an old Greenspan favourite — I call it the ‘take this job and shove it’ index — as it symbolizes a return of worker confidence to leave their current position and seek out greener pastures.”
- The labour force expanded for the third straight month.
“On net, it was a solid report with mostly positive internals, not merely the headline increase, and confirms the view that the Fed will be tapering off by the fourth quarter (which it really must do anyway to prevent a passive easing policy),” said Rosenberg.
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