The “prediction market,” Intrade, isn’t particularly good at predicting things, but what it is good at is showing the real-time consensus about things.
And here are two things Intrade’s contract on Mitt Romney is showing right now:
- The consensus about Mitt Romney’s odds of becoming President continues to rise
- These odds are still only 40%, which seems surprisingly low given the crappy state of the economy.
As has often been said, people vote with their wallets–“It’s the economy, stupid”–and today’s US economy certainly isn’t anything to write home about. And recent economic data has been bad enough that some economists are now saying that we are already in a recession.
So, it actually seems surprising that Romney’s odds haven’t risen even higher…
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