Republican nominee Mitt Romney has surged into a lead in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, the first time he has done so since October 2011. The average, which measures the average of six polls, gives Romney a 0.7-point lead over President Barack Obama, his largest lead to date in the RCP average dating back to February 2011. In the five polls, Romney gets an average of 48.2 per cent of the vote, compared with 47.8 per cent for Obama.
It’s Romney’s first lead in the RCP average since Oct. 11, 2011 — almost exactly one year ago — when Romney held a 45.9 per cent to 45.3 per cent average lead over Obama in what was then still a hypothetical matchup.
The average reflects the bumps Obama has taken in national polling since his consensus flop in last week’s first presidential debate. Two of the polls included in the average were taken primarily or entirely before the debate, and they both give Obama a slight lead.
Here are the four polls RCP measures after the debate, which all have Romney in the lead:
- Gallup’s new likely-voter model gave Romney a 2-point lead over Obama today.
- Pew Research’s poll released Monday put Romney up 4 points on Obama, a 12-point swing.
- An Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll has Romney up 47-45.
- Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll puts the race in a dead heat, as both candidates get 48 per cent of the vote.
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