Mitt Romney continued his surge on President Barack Obama in New Hampshire over the past month and now trails the president by just 3 points in a new WMUR Granite State poll released Monday. The poll finds that Obama leads Romney, 49 per cent to 46 per cent. That’s a point closer than last month and 6 points closer since April, when Romney basically locked up the nomination.
And it’s clear Romney has some advantages deeper into the poll. Three key stats should worry Obama heading into the final three months of the campaign.
First, Obama’s favorability ratings have plunged in the state over the past six months. In February, his positive-negative favorability rating stood at 53-40. That’s now down to an even 47-47, a 13-point swing in six months. What helps him keep his lead is a 41-49 favourable-to-unfavorable rating for Romney.
Here’s a look at Obama’s favorability ratings:
The second point is the “enthusiasm gap” that has become a theme in the presidential race. Romney leads by 3 points among voters “extremely interested” in the race, while Obama has a huge lead among the voters who are just “somewhat/not very interested.”
Finally, there’s a big difference between Obama’s 2008 performance and his projected 2012 performance with Independent voters. In 2008, he won 59 per cent of Independent voters in New Hampshire, a 20-point advantage over John McCain. Right now, WMUR pegs his lead with Independents at only 42-39.
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