What A Gloomy GOP Campaign Guru Just Told Me

Romney Paul Ryan

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A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Mitt Romney up by a point over Barack Obama 47% to 46%. (46% is a truly horrible number for an incumbent.) But it is going to take more than a few narrow polls to change what I sense to be the widespread mood here that Romney is very narrowly losing, but the race remains winnable.So it was with great interest that I listened to the thoughts a longtime, much-respected GOP operative, whom I will nickname the Gloomy Guru. Among GG’s observation:

  • Romney will win North Carolina
  • Ohio is iffy in GG’s view, though one very smart, very connected Ohio GOPer thinks the state is lost
  • New Mexico is lost
  • Colorado looking good
  • Pennsylvania is fool’s gold, not going to happen
  • Wisconsin can happen
  • Virginia will be a dogfight, is critical

– If Romney loses, there will be war in the GOP over immigration and how party is connecting — or, rather, not connecting — with Hispanic voters. Sticking Marco Rubio or some other profile Hispanic politician on the ticket is not enough. Very adamant about this.

UPDATE:  And, no, GG is not Jon Huntsman, though JH did just write an op-ed on immigration in the WSJ.

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