Photo: Bloomberg Television
Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, who made one of the most accurate economic predictions in history a few years ago, has issued a new outlook.Professor Rogoff, you might recall, co-wrote a landmark book about the aftermath of financial crises with his collaborator Carmen Reinhart.
The book, “This Time It’s Different,” examined dozens of financial crises similar to the one the U.S. experienced in 2008-2009.
Reinhart and Rogoff’s conclusion after analysing these crises was the the global economy would experience a long period of slow growth.
And so it has.
In the past several years, the US economy has grown at about 1%-2% per year, a far cry from the 3%-4% growth rates that had come to feel normal.
So, what do Reinhart and Rogoff think will happen next?
Professor Rogoff was getting a coffee this morning at the Davos conference at the same time that I was getting a tea.
So I asked him.
“Hopefully not as bad [as the last few years],” he said.
He brought up the theme of this year’s conference: “Resilient Dynamism.”
“I see the resilience,” he said. “But not the dynamism.”
So, in Professor Rogoff’s view, it sounds like we’re in for another OK-but-kinda-crappy few years.