At the Dealbook conference, a panel just wrapped up hosted by NYT econ reporter Annie Lowrey, along with Jared Bernstein, Glenn Hubbard, and the economist Robert Gordon.
Gordon presented the scariest chart at the conference from his paper: Is US Economic Growth Over?
He basically sees the end of huge growth trends, and six huge headwinds that could drag down future growth. From the NBER:
The analysis links periods of slow and rapid growth to the timing of the three industrial revolutions (IR’s), that is, IR #1 (steam, railroads) from 1750 to 1830; IR #2 (electricity, internal combustion engine, running water, indoor toilets, communications, entertainment, chemicals, petroleum) from 1870 to 1900; and IR #3 (computers, the web, mobile phones) from 1960 to present. It provides evidence that IR #2 was more important than the others and was largely responsible for 80 years of relatively rapid productivity growth between 1890 and 1972. Once the spin-off inventions from IR #2 (aeroplanes, air conditioning, interstate highways) had run their course, productivity growth during 1972-96 was much slower than before. In contrast, IR #3 created only a short-lived growth revival between 1996 and 2004. Many of the original and spin-off inventions of IR #2 could happen only once – urbanization, transportation speed, the freedom of females from the drudgery of carrying tons of water per year, and the role of central heating and air conditioning in achieving a year-round constant temperature.
Even if innovation were to continue into the future at the rate of the two decades before 2007, the U.S. faces six headwinds that are in the process of dragging long-term growth to half or less of the 1.9 per cent annual rate experienced between 1860 and 2007. These include demography, education, inequality, globalization, energy/environment, and the overhang of consumer and government debt. A provocative “exercise in subtraction” suggests that future growth in consumption per capita for the bottom 99 per cent of the income distribution could fall below 0.5 per cent per year for an extended period of decades.
Below, the key chart showing the possible end of growth is here:
[credit provider=”Robert J. Gordon / nber.org” url=”http://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf”]