Titled “Cyclical Bull, Secular Bear,” the slide deck presented five key themes that Ritholtz is focused on.
- “Still in a Secular Bear Market” Due to price to earnings ratios remaining above average and trending lower, Ritholtz sees a current secular bear market.
- Structural, Cyclical Factors of Employment Overhang He notes how low nonfarm payrolls have been trending in the wake of the recent recession compared to other past recessions, which can be seen in the chart below. UBS
- Tales of Housing Recovery Are Greatly Exaggerated Ritholtz notes that this is “not exactly a stable housing recovery.” He emphasises his point by using charts that detail struggling existing home sales, new home sales, home building, and excess mortgage debt.
- What’s Working Now He points to BioTech, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Natural Gas, the Industrial Sector, and US Treasuries.
- How Much Will US Elections Matter? Ritholtz uses two key charts to detail how much the US elections will matter, including one pointing to US Bonds being a safe haven during crises, and another detailing the sentiment cycle. The US Bonds chart is posted below. UBS
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