RIM Earnings Preview: Q2 In The Bag, Q3 Guidance More Challenging

jim balsillie

BlackBerry maker Research In Motion reports Q2 earnings today after the bell. We will cover RIM’s earnings LIVE, including live coverage of the earnings call at 5 p.m. ET. Join us.

RIM’s August quarter should be an easy one to beat: Verizon has been offering a buy-one, get-one-free deal on BlackBerries, pushing out its inventory with cheap prices ahead of new product launches, and the new Tour has been a solid hit.

But the Street has already-high expectations for RIM’s guidance for the November quarter, including 65% year-over-year subscriber net additions growth, and that’s where trading will likely focus. (This is always a tricky one. This time last year, RIM gave weak November quarter guidance and shares flopped 20%.)

In the long run, RIM is fine if its Christmas gadgets are ready to go by Thanksgiving. But how early they ship in the November quarter, and how much promotional muscle its carriers put behind them that far ahead of Christmas, could make a significant difference in how the quarter shapes up. (Delays and soft promotion would be bad, as would a weak gross margin forecast.)

Key Stats:

  • Q2 Revenue: $3.62 billion consensus, $3.7 billion (RBC)
  • Q2 EPS: $1.00 consensus, $1.03 (RBC)
  • Q2 Subscribers: 4.1 million net additions (RBC)
  • Q3 Revenue: $3.92 billion consensus, $4.0-4.1 billion (RBC)
  • Q3 EPS: $1.05 consensus, $1.06-1.08 (RBC)
  • Q3 Subscribers: 4.3 million net additions (RBC)

Join us at 4 p.m. ET for live coverage.

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