Riholtz: Economists Are Crappy Forecasters (And Rosy-Eyed)

Barry Riholtz breaks down the WSJ’s latest survey of economists.


As the WSJ chart shows, more often than not, economists as a group have underestimated inflation.



Economists consistently overestimated GDP.

Economists underestimated unemployment, and at over-estimated NFP job creation.

Economists are divided on whether commodity prices are at a peak: 51% said “yes,” 49% said “no.”

Here are the probability forecasts for “A Recession will occur over the next 12 months:”
2007 27.1%
2008 42.1%
2009 70.9%


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