As the WSJ chart shows, more often than not, economists as a group have underestimated inflation.
Economists consistently overestimated GDP.
Economists underestimated unemployment, and at over-estimated NFP job creation.
Economists are divided on whether commodity prices are at a peak: 51% said “yes,” 49% said “no.”
Here are the probability forecasts for “A Recession will occur over the next 12 months:”
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