Photo: Flickr/Peter Krantz
Each year, Thomson Reuters’ David Pendlebury uses the company’s Web of Knowledge research platform to predict Nobel winners in physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine and economics.Since 2002, he’s predicted 26 winners, and last year, every single winner was previously predicted, either in 2008 or 2010, according to Popular Science.
Here are his picks for this year for the prize in economics:
Occupation: Finance professor, MIT
For what: For his arbitrage pricing theory and other fundamental contributions to finance. He’s also credited with creating risk-neutral pricing and another important model for pricing derivatives, which are now standards for pricing in major securities trading firms.
Recent paper: “The Price Impact of Survival and Rational Traders,” Journal of Finance, 2006
Sir Anthony B. Atkinson & Angus Deaton
Occupations: Economists, Oxford and Princeton
For what: For their work on income, consumption and well-being. Most recently, Deaton has been researching what is called “subjective well-being,” or more simply, “happiness,” according to the Daily Princetonian.
Recent paper: “Income, Health, and Well-Being around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2008
Occupations: Economist and finance professor, Yale
For what: For pioneering contributions to financial market volatility and the dynamics of asset prices. Shiller is also known for his housing market expertise, and for having co-created the Case-Shiller home price index. He’s also an expert in behavioural finance.
Recent paper: “Price/earnings ratios as a forecaster of returns,” 1996
It’s a daunting task to predict Nobel prize winners because there is no public list of nominees. We’ll know soon enough if one of Pendlebury’s picks comes out on top.