After a week with virtually no economic data, this week starts with a bang.
At 8:30 AM ET, we get April retail sales.
SocGen has a preview:
US RETAIL SALES TO SHINE A LIGHT ON Q2 GDP
The Census Bureau’s advance report on April retail sales will provide an important first piece of the US Q2 growth puzzle. In contrast to the improvement in labour market conditions witnessed in April, headline purchases probably slumped further, contracting by another 0.6% after the 0.4% decline posted in March. Despite the projected disappointing April results, solid momentum heading out of the winter quarter implies that our current Q2 real PCE forecast remains on track. MARKET ISSUES: The markets worry that the sequester might be damaging growth and weak sales readings might add further fuel to those concerns.
This will be a key number. A strong reading would start to erase a lot of the lingering doubts that had flared up last month, but which have gone a bit to the back burner thanks to the equity rally.
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