At 8:30 a.m. ET, we’ll get the latest data on US retail sales.
Economists are expecting it to be ugly. After a rebound to 1.2% in May, the consensus is for a 0.2% rise in sales, and 0.5% excluding autos, according to Bloomberg.
As we highlighted Monday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that sales actually fell, based on their credit and debit card data.
“The softness in [our] spending data suggest caution heading into the June Census Bureau advance retail sales report given that the two measures trend together,” BAML economics wrote.
The retail sales data will give us a better sense of the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of US GDP.