We’re not sure what to make of this one. A report from a Chinese think tank is calling for China to hit peak emissions in 2030, a full 20 years ahead of what the Chinese government thinks is possible.
Is this a good thing, as China’s emissions will start diminishing in 2030? Or is it a bad thing, since that means China will just keep on pumping out lots of nasty junk for for the next 20 years? We assume it’s the latter.
Who knows though? Projecting out 20 years, when the global economy is undergoing massive upheavel seems like a fools game to us.
New Scientist: If China adopts an “enhanced low carbon scenario” with very stringent policies, emissions could peak in 2030 and fall to 1.4 billion tonnes in 2050, equivalent to their 2005 level, the report says. This would be “difficult but doable”, says lead author Jiang Kejun.
Pan Jiahua, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Research Centre for Sustainable Development and the nation’s leading climate economist, says that rapid progress in developing clean technologies means China could reduce emissions earlier than 2050. “But I would think it would be safer to set the peak time at 2035,” he says.
Pan says the report could put pressure on the government to compromise on its refusal to adopt emissions cuts in the run-up to the UN climate negotiations in December.
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