FBR Capital just released a note saying a vote on the ‘cash for clunkers’ program could come today or tomorrow. It will be tacked onto fast moving anti-tobacco legislation.
There are two versions of the legislation under discussion now. One is more friendly to the environment, the other is much broader. FBR thinks that the Senate will vote on each. Whichever receives the most support will be added to legislation giving the FDA regulatory authority over tobacco products. That’s a popular bill almost guaranteed to pass.
In order for either version to pass, it will require 60 votes. If neither program can muster that many votes, then the program dies. It will probably get stuffed in the cap and trade legislation. If cash for clunkers is approved in the next two days, FBR thinks there’s a 75% chance that it will be implemented by year’s end.
Great news for car makers, right? Nope. At least not in FBR’s eyes. “The legislation is limited to one year and projected to generate only about 1 million new vehicle sales, limited to those with older vehicles whose trade-in value is less than the voucher.”
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