Recession Risk Is Going Away

From OSG Group chief economist Thomas Lam:

Evidently, US recession concerns have eased in-line with modest improvements in financial conditions and firmer guidance from high-frequency indicators recently.  Our proprietary Recession Alert Composite (RAC) did pull back to a preliminary reading of less than 50% in mid-Aug from 60% in Jul (the experimental RAC is a simple weighted diffusion composite index of three financial-oriented and two activity-related indicators of US business cycle peaks).  Similarly, the short-term growth rate of our Financial Market Conditions Index (FMCI), a measure of broad financial market conditions in the US, continued to recover modestly in mid-Aug and Jul following a slight contraction in Jun.


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