Real Time Probabilities Of Recession Are Above 20% For The Second Consecutive Month

Seeking to eliminate the enormous lag of NBER in declaring the beginning and end of recessions, economist Marcelle Chauvet computes real-time recession probabilities in a manner consistent with the long after the fact findings of the NBER.

The probability is down from last month, nonetheless Real Time Probabilities of Recession are above 20% for the second consecutive month.

Real-time means a one quarter delay, but that is still faster than the NBER is likely to make proclamations.

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Real Time Recession 106

Photo: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

Month/Year Probability of Recession% January 2009 100.0% February 2009 99.7% March 2009 98.9% April 2009 94.3% May 2009 92.6% June 2009 69.4% July 2009 41.0% August 2009 39.3% September 2009 27.1% October 2009 18.9% November 2009 7.9% December 2009 6.5% January 2010 4.1% February 2010 2.4% March 2010 2.1% April 2010 1.1% May 2010 2.8% June 2010 27.0% July 2010 20.6%Note the drop from 69.4% to 41.0% in June/July 2009 accurately timing the end of the recession well in advance of the NBER. Also note the huge leap from 2.8% in April to over 20% in June and July.

For a description of the methodology, please see the centre for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles post CREFC Real Time Probabilities of Recession.

Also see Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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