CHARTS: Every Bullish And Bearish Trend In The Stock Market Right Now

sentimentThe Philly Fed’s ‘Anxious Index’

Photo: RBC Capital Markets

There isn’t a clear consensus regarding sentiment towards the stock markets. Some point to metrics that argue sentiment is extremely bearish, which is a bullish contrarian indicator.

Others will look at the stock market and argue that investors ignoring weak economic fundamentals have become complacent, which may be a bearish contrarian indicator.

Myles Zyblock, Chief Institutional Strategist for RBC Capital Markets recently reviewed 17 major sentiment and market-based economic indicators in his effort “to gauge the investment climate.”

Thanks to Myles Zyblock and RBC Capital Markets for giving us permission to feature these charts.

Bullish: Consumer expectation for stocks have improved, but the number who expect such is low

Bullish: High beta stocks have broken a two year downtrend

Bullish: Low quality stocks have been outperforming high quality stocks since July

Bearish: The Philly Fed index is signalling a recession

Bearish: The ISM has remained near 50, and its internal components are signalling a move lower

Bearish: The volatility index (VIX) is extremely low, signalling complacency in the markets

Bearish: Sentiment among active

Bearish: Around 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving averages

Bearish: The Put/Call ratio is historically low, which means very few people are worried about prices falling

Neutral: The Philly Fed's Anxious index shows that professional forecasters see a 17% chance of GDP contraction

Neutral: Positive economic surprises have been improving, but the index is currently sending a neutral signal

Neutral: There is roughly the same number of investors who are bullish on stocks as there are who are bearish

Neutral: Financial advisors have become increasingly bullish since June, but not to an extreme

Neutral: Earnings revisions have been net-negative, but it's not sending a definitive buy or sell signal

Neutral: The S&P 500 is just under 1 standard deviation above its 200-day moving average

Neutral: Cyclical stocks are outperforming defensive stocks, but not significantly

Neutral: The spread between high yield bonds and government bonds is well below crisis levels, but they need to be much lower to be sending a convincing bullish sign

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