The iPhone 3G’s faster speeds, cheaper price, apps platform, and wider distribution will lead to a breakout holiday quarter for Apple (AAPL), reminiscent of the iPod’s December quarter in 2005, when sales tripled year-over-year, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky writes in a note today.
For the September quarter, when the iPhone 3G launches, Abramsky expects Apple to sell 5.1 million iPhones up 356% year-over-year and 70% above the consensus 3 million units. For the December holiday quarter, he expects sales of 6.5 million iPhones, up 181% year-over-year, and 44% above the 4.5 million unit consensus.
For calendar 2008, he expects Apple to sell 14 million iPhones, 40% above its goal of selling 10 million. He expects the company to sell 24 million phones in 2009, which would represent 107% year-over-year growth. (Meanwhile, Piper’s Gene Munster assumes Apple will sell 45 million iPhones next year, but he has already built in expectations of an iPhone family, including cheap, low-end gadgets.)
What’s that mean for Apple? Based on “various subsidy/demand assumptions,” Abramsky estimates Apple could gain anywhere from $1.8-6.8 billion in incremental revenue during fiscal 2009, $2.50-9.50 per share of free cash flow, and 29 cents to $1.09 per share of forward-12-month EPS, including the loss of revenue sharing from carrier partners. (For context, he expects Apple to make $6.50 per share on $42.5 billion of revenue in fiscal 2009.)