Of the Wall Street strategists followed by Business Insider, no one is as bullish on 2015 as RBC Capital’s Jonathan Golub.
“We are initiating our 2015 S&P 500 price target of 2,325, consistent with 12% potential upside,” Golub wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “This is based on a 16.7x multiple applied to our 2016 EPS estimate of $US139.”
Like in 2014, Golub believes 2015 will be highlighted by healthy US GDP growth, lackluster global growth with China and Japan getting worse, elevated profit margins, low volatility, and most multiple expansion, that is higher price/earnings (P/E) multiples.
Golub believes that corporate revenues will track GDP higher. But earnings growth will pick up as companies clamp down on selling, general and administrative (SG&A expenses).
“Going forward, we believe that SG&A will be the most important driver of margins as compensation grows at a slower pace than revenues. In our view, this should provide 1- 2% of upside per year,” Golub wrote.
While P/E multiples remain at around 16.2x, Golub is confident they can go higher.
“[W]e believe that the disruption to the relationship between corporate bond yields and earnings yields, which occurred during the financial crisis, should continue to re- normalize over the next several years,” he wrote.
Golub favours financials, health care, and technology. He recommends being underweight telecom and utilities.
Here’s what other top Wall Street strategists are expecting for next year:
- Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite: 2,100
- Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin: 2,100
- Barclays’ Jonathan Glionna: 2,100
- Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco: 2,150
- BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus: 2,200
- Citi’s Tobias Levkovich: 2,200
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Savita Subramanian: 2,200
- UBS’s Julian Emanuel: 2,225
BMO’s Brian Belski: 2,250
- Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker: 2,275
- Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus: 2,311
RBC’s Jonathan Golub: 2,325