RBC’s Jonathan Golub — who was tied for top stock market bull at the beginning of this year — is out with another super bullish forecast for the stock market in 2016.
To begin with, there should be a few, key macro differences between this year and 2016.
“2015 was marked by falling oil prices, a diminishing global growth outlook, and flat rates,” Golub wrote to clients on Friday. “Our constructive 2016 outlook is predicated upon stabilizing commodity prices, and an incrementally higher dollar and rates. All of this should result in a substantially higher earnings trajectory as well as a modest re-rating of stocks.”
This different climate should help lift the S&P 500 to RBC’s year-end target of 2,300. That level would represent a 10% upside from Golub’s lowered year-end target of 2,100. The S&P 500 closed near 2,089 on Friday.
It would also mean that 2016 would bring a healthier return on the index. Assuming the S&P 500 finished this year near its current levels, it would have gained just 1.5% for the year, the lowest since 2008.
Golub is also bullish on earnings growth, and sees earnings per share growing by 6.7% and 7% in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
The chart breaks down each of the contributions to this growth:
One of the biggest drags on earnings growth this year has been the energy sector, following the collapse of commodity prices, especially crude oil.
But this means that companies have a lowered bar to clear next year to experience growth, provided oil prices do not plunge from current levels. This should support earnings growth for the sector and the overall S&P 500, according to Golub.
For the US economy, Golub notes that strategists have been too bullish on GDP estimates by about 3% in virtually every year during this recovery. In hindsight, however, it’s clear that many developed economies are not experiencing the same growth rates that they did before the last financial crisis.
And so, Golub notes that consensus expectations are for modest growth by 2.5% for both 2016 and 2017, which would still be higher than the projected 2.1% growth rate this year, and the highest since 2010.
“Our work indicates that S&P 500 revenue growth tends to mimic the overall direction of the economy,” Golub noted.
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