The RBA releases the minutes to the March Board meeting are out at 11.30 this morning Sydney/Melbourne time.
They’re unusually important this month because the market is interested in whether the pause in March was just a measured move before another easing in April or May.
At issue is the level of unease within the Reserve Bank about the pace of Sydney housing and the risk the February easing could pose to the economy.
Earlier this month in his statement Governor Stevens said:
Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities over recent months. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market.
As a result of this, and no doubt other factors, the Board judged “it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being,” even though “further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target.”
That’s the tightrope the RBA is walking between an economy clearly in need of confidence and stimulus and a housing market that lacks neither.