A former hedge fund manager who retired at 36 has put together a video on how to predict the market

Raoul Pal isn’t a big fan of theoretical economics.

The former hedge fund manager, who comanaged GLG’s global macro fund and retired in 2004 at 36, focuses more on real-life economics.

“I think trying to pretend everything is a science is a lunatic,” Pal said in a video on Real Vision TV. “What you should understand is this is behavioural economics and what’s really driving the economy and asset prices.”

He said he is frustrated by the Federal Reserve’s poor forecasting record and incomplete snapshots provided by Wall Street economists.

“It’s not some sort of voodoo process — it’s really all about probability analysis, and understanding trends and cycles,” Pal said.

Pal has published a 40-minute video on his website, walking viewers through long- and short-term business cycles, and what risks investors should be taking and what they should probably avoid.

Here’s an excerpt:

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