Newsletter writer Raoul Pal — who writes the popular Global Macro Investor, which is read by hedge funds and the wealthy — says everything he looks at indicates that negative growth is coming in Q1 next year.
What’s he looking at? In an interview on CNBC, he says that The ECRI ( which has improved a little bit of late) and the leading indicators of the ISM all point to a slowdown.
Bear in mind that Pal has been uber-bearish for quite some time. In May he warned of the possibility of a sudden crash that never materialised.
As for Europe — Pal lives in Spain — he says you can see how bad it all is on the ground (shops closing, etc.), and he thinks that European sovereign default is a real possibility.